What does default probability indicate?

Default probability specifically quantifies the likelihood that a borrower will fail to meet their debt obligations, which can involve missing payments or being unable to repay the principal and interest on a loan. This measure is crucial for lenders and investors because it helps them assess the risk associated with a particular borrower or investment. Understanding this probability enables financial institutions to make informed lending decisions, price loans appropriately, and manage their overall credit risk.

In the context of the question, while timely payments by a borrower are an important aspect of credit behavior, default probability focuses directly on the risk of non-payment. This distinction emphasizes the critical nature of assessing a borrower's ability to fulfill their financial commitments and the potential impact on cash flows for lenders and investors.